Yes, you read that correctly.

D.C. Councilmember Michael A. Brown (I-at Large) is considering running for D.C. Council in the upcoming special election to fill Kwame Brown’s soon-to-be-vacant at-large seat. Brown, who was elected to the Council as an independent in 2008 has been itching to switch his party affiliation back to the Democratic party. Everyone in the world knows that Brown is actually a Democrat, and his father, the late Ron Brown worked for the Clinton Administration and served as chair of the DNC. Brown shed the (D) from his name two years ago to run for one of the two seats reserved for minority parties.

So what does this mean for the special election? If Michael A. Brown entered the race, he’d have a pretty strong advantage out of the gate. He’s got pretty strong name recognition across the city and has the advantage of incumbency. However, that ignores the fact that this entire maneuver is completely ridiculous, self-serving and most of all, absurd. If Brown were to win and “switch” seats, that would result in yet another special election, this time reserved for minority parties. That would also cost the city at least another $500,000. Money the city does not have.

This does call into question the whole idea of seats being set aside for minority parties, and the process of switching party affiliation. Everyone in the world knows that Brown is a Democrat and for him to hold one of the reserved non-Democratic seats is also absurd. This maneuvering is likely to help pave the way for an eventual mayoral bid for Brown, possibly as soon as 2014. Sources close to Brown told me back in November he had decided against pursuing the vacant seat, because a loss could result in him losing his current seat. It appears at present no one is sure if that is the case or not. How no one is sure, I don’t know, but yet another reason why we need to reform how D.C. Council elections work.

If Brown wants to switch parties, he should resign his current at-large seat and run for the open seat. This could allow both special elections to occur on the same ballot, and show that Brown is willing to take some sort of political risk to rejoin the Democratic Party. If Brown runs for the seat while staying on the Council, it will be a campaign that will be very hard to take seriously. Remember, at least Michael D. Brown ran as a Democrat, his true party affiliation.

This afternoon the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner released the cause of death of Ali Mohammed. Mohammed died outside of the DC9 nightclub on October 15 after an altercation. The report classifies the death as a homicide, and lists the cause of death as “Excited Delirium Associated With Arrhythmogenic Cardiac Anomalies, Alcohol Intoxication and Physical Exertion With Restraint.”

A quick bit of research indicates that “excited delirium” is a medical condition often associated with drug use that causes aggressive behavior and violence, as well as unexpected physical strength and hyperthermia. Excited delirium often leads to death by hyperthermia, with body temperatures reaching 105 degrees. While excited delirium is associated with drug use, there has been no information released regarding any toxicology reports, other than the “alcohol intoxication” listed in the cause of death.

The Mohammed family released a statement earlier this afternoon, noting that the death was ruled a homicide and stated “[t]his report also reminds us that Ali suffered a cruel and senseless death.”

The homicide ruling does not immediately imply that murder charges will be filed in the case. From the Medical Examiner report, it’s difficult to determine who, if anyone, could face charges. The murder charges initially filed against DC9 employees were since dropped.

It appears as though Mohammed’s death might not have occurred had the altercation at DC9 been avoided, but there has been no indication that the death was the result of a beating, as initially stated by Metropolitan Police Chief Cathy Lanier.

OK folks, we’re here. Primary Day is tomorrow, and soon the votes will be counted and this will all be over. It has been a pleasure covering these races, and trying to give readers the best information possible about the candidates. This final Campaign Notebook will serve as a basic assessment of each race and what to expect tomorrow. As always, we urge all our readers who live in the District to go to the polls and vote. There’s a lot of predictions and analysis in here, so let’s get to it.

The Big Race

No matter the outcome, this is one for the history books. The Vince Gray campaign will serve as a model for challenging incumbents. Gray jumped into this race late, after much deliberation. At times, it was unclear how passionate he was about challenging Adrian Fenty, and it seemed that he would face an uphill battle against the incumbent. The tables have turned, though, and this has become Vince Gray’s election to lose. Gray’s campaign hit Fenty in all the right spots, pushing the “personality gap” and appealing to those who felt shut out of the Fenty administration.

It was Fenty’s election to lose. How did this happen? It’s quite stunning, actually. Vincent Gray spent a lot of time and money connecting with voters and pushing his message. He released plan after plan detailing his platform. These papers were long and outside of journalists no one read them, but he put them out. Fenty did not respond. Fenty spent time apologizing for his personality issues, but only made vague promises to do things differently. Fenty never explained exactly how things would be different. He did not lay out a vision for the next four years. He did not make attempts to appear genuine that things would change. He did not make a case for how he would extend his “results” into the future. All Fenty did was essentially ask you to ignore Vince Gray and give him a shot. That is not a very good campaign strategy. At the last minute, as it came down to the wire, we were given Ron Moten and Michelle Rhee as the face of the campaign. Rhee wasn’t universally loved, and Moten is well, Ron Moten. Fenty had plenty of reasons to be reelected, and if he loses the blame falls squarely on his inability to run a campaign. What in the world happened to Adrian Fenty? The world may never know.

Prediction. Based on all of the information, I am predicting that Vincent Gray will win the primary election tomorrow. I expect the results to be something along the lines of Vincent Gray 51%, Adrian Fenty 46%, other minor candidates a total of 3%. However, as this is DC I would not be completely surprised if we witnessed a very narrow Fenty victory as a result of a massive GOTV effort at the last minute. Confidence: Medium-low

Council Chair

Vincent Orange was never able to pull it together. There was no particular reason for Kwame Brown to cruise to victory. Sure, he has experience on the Council, but most observers were expecting some sort of heated race for the Council Chair seat. Since Councilmember Jack Evans declined to run, there was a void that left Brown as the front-runner. It was surprising to see such little competition for the second highest office in the District government. Vincent Orange has experience, but it seemed his message was off and he just could not connect with voters. Some of it may have been his attitude, which came out in a statement where he said he had no interest in serving on the Council as a Ward member. Seemed a bit of a slap in the face of the legislative body he was aiming to lead.

Prediction. Kwame Brown will cruise to victory by a large margin. Orange never connected with undecided voters, and as a result they will likely break in large numbers for Brown. I’d be surprised if Orange gets over 25% tomorrow. Confidence: High

At-Large

Clark Ray got the short end of the stick. Councilmember Phil Mendelson is in danger of losing his seat, but not because he was challenged on the issues. Instead, he is facing possible defeat by Michael D. Brown, a man cashing in on name confusion. This is tantamount to election fraud in the eyes of many, especially considering recent mailings and campaign signs that only move to further confuse voters. Clark Ray dedicated himself to challenging Mendelson on the issues, which is admittedly a tough task. Ray did everything a challenger was supposed to do, and Ray will one day make an excellent Councilmember. He went above and beyond with his campaign, traveled to each ward and met with voters. And now, even the most dedicated Ray supporters are having to reconsider voting for him, as their votes may end up helping the other Michael Brown win. It’s total, utter nonsense and it is unfortunate that the recall procedures in DC are very difficult for city-wide offices.

Prediction. We hope against hope that voters will not be too confused on Tuesday. I’d imagine we may see the numbers fall something like this: Phil Mendelson 50%, Michael D. Brown 45%, Clark Ray 5%. I don’t like those final numbers at all, but I’m hoping the undecided voters break towards Mendelson and don’t deliver a Brown victory. Otherwise, we could easily see these numbers flip and put a second Michael Brown on the Council. I’d love to see Ray poll higher but I feel like the name confusion was the last nail in his coffin. I do think he’s a great contender to fill Kwame Brown’s at large spot should he win tomorrow. Confidence: Low.

Ward One

Jim Graham is bulletproof. To be clear, during Jim Graham’s many years of service on the Council he has served as an example for providing excellent constituent service. Ward 1 has changed dramatically during his tenure, and as always there are concerns about what direction things are headed. There are lingering issues with crime and poverty, and some raise good questions about development deals. However, it was only after the taxicab bribery scandal that anyone actually questioned whether Graham should be reelected. While Graham has not been implicated in any way, the scandal put a cloud over his office. The fallout from the deadly Metro crash also put a black mark on Graham’s tenure as WMATA Chair. This allowed an opening for a challenger, but the road was going to be a long and hard one. Bryan Weaver ran the best campaign to unseat Graham, but was just unable to gain the traction needed to unseat a long-term incumbent. Jeff Smith presented some interesting ideas, but his campaign always seemed to lack a certain something. Weaver seemed to have more moxie, and connected better with residents.

Prediction. Jim Graham will win with around 65% of the vote. I wouldn’t be surprised if Weaver clocked in over 25%, though, with Smith trailing at around 10%. The math was never easy for either challenger, and I don’t expect any huge surprises on election day. Graham is political giant, and it seems he will own that Ward 1 seat as long as he wants. Confidence: High.

Ward Five

Oh, it gets messy. Ward 5 has been a great example of politics at its worst. Delano Hunter is young and motivated, but seems to have adopted the “do whatever it takes” to win strategy. I honestly have no idea what his true views are on marriage equality, but for many his failure to renounce the National Organization for Marriage is a dealbreaker. Incumbent Harry Thomas, Jr. did not present a compelling case for re-election, leaving an opening for someone. Could that someone be Kenyan McDuffie? McDuffie has been a bit of a sleeper candidate here, picking up a lot of late buzz. McDuffie is likely the best alternative to Thomas for many voters, but what remains unknown is whether he has gotten his name out enough.

Prediction. This is a tough one to pick numbers. I’d imagine Thomas will clock in with around 55% of the vote, and perhaps we’ll see a surprise with McDuffie coming in ahead of all of the other challengers. Confidence: Medium.

Ward Six

Tommy Wells will win reelection. There’s little question here. Tommy Wells is a powerhouse in Ward 6, and while some voters may have some unease about development, Kelvin Robinson did not pose a serious threat. Even with the endorsement of former Mayor Anthony Williams, I don’t think we’ll see Robinson get any significant numbers on Tuesday. Prediction: Tommy Wells will win at least 75% of the vote on Tuesday. Confidence: High.

Well, we’re down to the wire here. Early voting has started. Also, this is the first week where there has been a significant change in outlook, and that’s a bad thing for the guy on the wrong end. There are only eleven days left until the primary, and Mayor Adrian Fenty is facing a double-digit deficit in the polls. Can he recover in time? Well, let’s get down to the nitty gritty.

The Big Race

Can Fenty recover? A Washington Post poll released last Sunday shows Fenty trailing Vincent Gray by 17 points, among likely voters. That is a huge deficit to overcome in the final days of a campaign. The news of this poll propelled Gray into front-runner status, and his campaign has begun spreading the word that a Gray victory is inevitable. As such, we’ve seen more endorsements come in for Gray, including yesterday’s from Councilmember Mary Cheh (D-Ward 3). At this point, conventional wisdom would tell is it’s near impossible for Fenty to win on September 14. He does have money, and could certainly bombard the airwaves and mount a large GOTV effort. However, it may all be too little, too late.

How in the world did this happen? The Post poll indicates that most District voters are pleased with the results Fenty has brought over the past four years. Voters misgivings come from his personality and governing style. DC is a small enough town that voters will hold a leader accountable for how they get things done. The ends do not justify the means. The Gray campaign capitalized on this by highlighting Gray’s attention to detail and commitment to openness. Fenty’s change in heart, with promises to do things differently came far too late. Anyone watching this campaign knew that this would be the centerpiece of Gray’s attacks–how they Fenty campaign waited this long is completely mind-boggling. If Fenty loses, this election will become a case study for political science students for years to come.

But, Gray should be careful. On Wednesday, Gray and Fenty sparred in what was likely the last debate before the primary. There are a lot of round-ups on the debate’s content, but here are some general thoughts. Fenty is not going to win any public speaking awards, but he was more honest and open than he has been at any point in the campaign. Gray, in an attempt to push the “victory is inevitable” message, came off as smug, and his constant laughing seemed forced and crass. If Gray wasn’t leading by so much in the polls, I’d consider this to be a mistake, however at this point even if all of the undecideds broke to Fenty, it would be hard to come up with a scenario where Gray loses. In any event, though, things can and do change quickly in the last week of a campaign, so Gray should try to avoid looking too smug. On Friday’s FOX5 debate, Gray refused to admit to any mistakes he has ever made. Poor choice, show some humility.

So, where are we? Well, my take and everyone else’s would be that Gray is cruising towards a victory. It’s very hard to see this ending any other way, unless there is some sort of bombshell development in the next week. I imagine that as the “Gray is inevitable” storyline unfolds, we’ll see more endorsements and more money pile into Gray. We may see undecided voters break in large numbers for Gray, because people love to vote for a winner. All of the pieces are coming together for Gray, and there’s very little Fenty could do to change it. If the election were held today, I’d predict a Gray victory by 7-10 points.

But, what if? What are some things Fenty could do to turn it around right now? He could fire District Attorney General Peter Nickles, for one. Nickles has been at the center of most of Fenty’s troubles, and firing him could send a clear signal he is willing to make tough choices within his administration to help improve transparency and communication. He could say that while Nickles is a dedicated public servant, the working relationship has harmed his ability to govern. Fenty could also commit himself to sitting down with every member of the Council after the election to talk about rebuilding the Council-Mayor relationship. There’s nothing to lose at this point. Gray may counter by saying it’s an act of desperation–which it would be–but a powerful act nonetheless. Of course, though, without Nickles, Fenty would be on his own for the remainder of a possibly lame-duck administration.

Council Chair

Kwame in charge as election day nears. Polling shows Kwame Brown with a commanding lead over Vincent Orange. There are sill some undecided voters, but it’s looking less and less like Orange has a chance to catch-up. Orange has made some last ditch attempts to file complaints with the Office of Campaign Finance, regarding campaign filings from previous elections. All predictions are at this point that Kwame Brown will win the primary for Council Chair. That, of course, will trigger a future special election to fill Brown’s at-Large seat.

at-large Council

A Michael Brown victory is looking like a real possibility. The news out of the at-large race is not good for incumbent Phil Mendelson. The latest Washington Post poll shows Brown with a non-trivial lead, and it’s looking like it may be difficult for Mendo to clear up the confusion before election day. In an ideal world, Michael D. Brown would drop out of this race, but that doesn’t seem like it’s going to happen. Instead, some have suggested Clark Ray should drop out and endorse Mendelson, if only to avoid a Brown victory. This would put Clark Ray in a good position for the at-Large seat that will likely be vacated by Kwame Brown. Confused yet? Well, yeah. If you want to know more about this, I suggest taking a look at the Loose Lips column from this week.

Ward One

Graham poll unsurprisingly shows Graham with a sizable lead. The numbers are about what I would expect from an internal poll, 70% for Graham, 11% for Weaver and 6% for Smith. Graham also locked-up the Washington Post endorsement this week. Weaver has run a good scrappy campaign, and I’d expect to see him do better than 11% at the ballot box. Smith has also made a last minute push with advertising, and has a ballot placement advantage. In a three-way race, though, it’s hard to see any math that doesn’t result in a Graham victory.

Could there be an October surprise? Remember folks, Ted Loza’s trial is schedule to begin in October. Of course, Graham has not been implicated in any wrongdoing but the trial will certainly put the spotlight back on Graham for at least a news cycle or two. Is there an opening for GOP candidate Marc Morgan? Well, Morgan hopes so.  Only time will tell, but with these re-elect numbers for Graham, there would need to be a huge bombshell.

Ward Five

Delano Hunter snags Washington Post endorsement. The Washington Post editorial board, which seems to be internally confused and conflicted, has endorsed Delano Hunter for the Ward 5 Council seat. The Post makes it a point to defend Hunter’s anti-Gay Marriage platform, and emphasizes that the candidate is not a homophobe. To be fair, the Post does make some good arguments against Harry Thomas Jr.’s re-election, but it may be hard for many to overlook Hunter’s views on gay marriage. Even with the Post’s endorsement it doesn’t seem likely that Thomas will lose his seat. However, this is quickly becoming the race to watch, along with the at-large election.

Ward Six

Tommy Wells also endorsed by the Post, expected to win re-election. While Kelvin Robinson may have embarked on a last-minute sign deployment around Capitol Hill, he doesn’t seem to have enough traction to unseat Tommy Wells.

OK folks, we’re now less than three weeks out from primary day. Eighteen days. What in the world will us journobloggers do once this is all over? These things are getting a bit longer as we get closer to the election, so let’s get started.

The Big Race

We’re getting down to the wire, and things are getting ugly. The Gray campaign unveiled it’s first television spot, which hits hard on the “cronyism” topic. Gray has also sent out a barrage of mailers with the same theme. Going negative with the first television spot is a bold move, going against most conventional wisdom. However, like others, we have to wonder how much conventional wisdom applies to this race. In fact, it seems at this point the cronyism theme likely tests in favor of Gray among undecideds.

Fenty loses bid to allow independents to change parties. The mayor made a last minute appeal to the Board of Elections and Ethics to allow non-party affiliated voters to change affiliation in order to vote on September 14. As of July 31, there were nearly 80,000 registered voters with no party affiliation, and they will not be able to vote in the primary. The deadline to change parties has passed, so any remaining no-affiliation voters are out of luck. Freeman Klopott at the Examiner thinks this smells of desperation in the Fenty camp. I’d agree. Fenty likely thinks these unaffiliated voters would break for him, which may be the case since the largest numbers of no-party voters are in Wards 1-3. I think Gray campaign manager Adam Rubinson went a bit too far with the Hugo Chavez comparison, but this does seem to fall into a “kitchen sink” approach to getting more votes. It is a valid point to discuss–that nearly 16% of the electorate cannot vote in the de-facto election—but this should happen between elections, not during.

What’s next–dogs and cats living together? Mass Hysteria? Fenty sits down with the City Paper. Vince Gray loves Sex and the City.

So where are we? Well, one projection shows Gray winning, by various margins depending on turn-out. The source of that projection isn’t exactly unbiased; the web site is called the unofficial Vince Gray for Mayor blog. I think it’s an interesting model, but the assumption that undecideds will either not vote or break the same way as everyone else is too much of a guess. I have a feeling there are still people who are on the fence, and could be swayed either way. The recent barrage of Gray materials is aimed not only at his base, but also at those who have misgivings about Fenty. The negative tone of the ad may not sway people to vote Gray, but it could cause them to give up on Fenty. If Gray can pull out a more positive GOTV ad before the election, perhaps he can get their support.

So, all I will say is at this point it’s close. Gray is doing all he can to rally his own support, and try to boost turnout in areas where he is popular. This is where things like Marion Barry come into play. For many undecided voters, or former Fenty supporters, seeing Barry with Gray swag may be a turnoff. However, if Gray can boost turnout to amazing levels where Barry is still popular, he may be able to overshadow Fenty’s remaining support. This certainly doesn’t mesh with the idea of running a “One City” campaign, but I don’t think anyone expected that theme to stick around all the way to election day. Fenty is on the defense which is never good for an incumbent, but no one has this in the bag. As Chuck Thies, one of D.C.’s most outspoken political consultants puts it, “If Fenty can’t find a way to win a news cycle he could go into a tailspin. The only good story for Fenty this past week –Race to the Top funding– got buried under a heap of criticism and bad news about his ham-fisted efforts to change election laws. Another week like this one could undo him altogether.” While Thies admits to be a Gray supporter, that analysis is mostly spot-on. We are definitely in a bizzaro world right now where Marion Barry’s advice actually makes sense.

Council Chair

Vincent Orange is still alive. That’s the big story here. In fact, he’s been flying under the radar for a while and has closed what was initially a large gap. Orange recently sent out a mailing that simply contained his recent Washington Post endorsement. I have a feeling this race may end up a lot closer than we think, though it really does depend on how the mostly white undecided voters in Northwest break on this one.

At-Large

The name confusion issue is still here, bigger than ever this week. As we reported earlier, Michael D. Brown won the Ward 5 straw poll. The name confusion issue is troublesome for both incumbent Phil Mendelson and challenger Clark Ray. It’s an especially tricky topic to analyze, because it’s hard to say whether people are actually voting against Mendelson or indicating their support for Michael A. Brown, the sitting at-Large Councilmember. If these voters actually desire to see Mendelson out, then there is an opening for Clark Ray. Ray launched a few new web ads this week, which are available on his web site.

Ward 1

The City Paper profiles the Ward 1 race in this week’s Loose Lips column.  In that article, Alan Suderman mentions the story of Ted Loza heading out into the neighborhood carrying Jim Graham signs, explaining to a local business owner that it might not be a good idea to support the wrong team. Graham’s campaign has insisted that Loza was not working in any official capacity. Of the City Paper piece, Graham spokesman Chuck Thies said, “Yet another CityPaper article about Jim Graham assembled primarily from recycled news and gripes from political opponents, but lacking any input from admirers of Jim’s outstanding record of accomplishments.”

Graham sent out a couple of mailings to Ward 1 residents this week, reminding them of his record on constituent services. Some voters, including myself, were confused by the goldfish imagery. The candidates also debated on the Kojo show last Friday. Crime and development were the big issues in that debate, with Bryan Weaver and Graham hotly debating matters of gang crime. Surprisingly, Jeff Smith who carries the FOP endorsement mostly stayed quiet during that part of the debate.

Ward 5

Harry Thomas, Jr. cruised to victory in the Ward 5 straw poll, netting 64% of the vote. However, challenger Delano Hunter is getting some air support from the National Organization for Marriage, who sent out a mailing to Ward 5 touting Delano Hunter’s credentials. NOM is also supporting fellow anti-gay-marriage candidates Kelvin Robinson and Leo Alexander. The theme of the latest NOM mailing is that out of state (read: gay) money is coming in smack down Delano Hunter. Mike DeBonis takes a look at that, which of course turns out to be a load of nonsense.

Ward 6

Kelvin Robinson still isn’t sure if streetcars are racist or not.

Last night Michael D. Brown narrowly defeated incumbent Phil Mendelson in the Ward 5 straw poll. Brown tallied 370 votes to Mendelson’s 350. Clark Ray placed third with 159 votes. Brown also bested Ray at the Ward 4 straw poll, coming in a close second to Mendelson. After the Ward 4 vote, some participants indicated they were confused and thought they were voting for sitting at-Large Councilmember Michael A. Brown.

Michael D. Brown is running on a one idea platform: Statehood for D.C. A noble goal, of course, but that issue hasn’t exactly been at the top of the list of concerns at these straw polls. The natural question is whether these straw polls are indicative of what will happen on election day. If I were Phil Mendelson I would certainly be concerned. Straw polls are attended by the party faithful and other residents with a strong interest in politics. If these people are getting it wrong, it’s only natural to think the electorate as a whole may get it wrong as well.

Mendelson has produced some fliers noting the difference between the two Browns, which includes a photo. TBD has a nice run-down of the difference as well. Will that be enough to stop the madness?

The perplexing thing here is that there are so many Democrats voting against Phil Mendelson. If you combine the Clark Ray vote with the Michael Brown vote, Mendelson falls significantly behind. This could be good news for Clark Ray, except time is running out to sell these possibly undecided voters on his candidacy.

So back to the headline question, what happens if somehow, against all odds, Michael D. Brown wins? Well, I’d imagine Phil Mendelson might try to run either as an Independent or a write-in for the general election. If history is a lesson though, generally that doesn’t pan out. Carol Schwartz ran as a write-in in 2008 after losing the Republican nomination to Pat Mara. Neither candidate won enough votes to get a seat and instead Michael A. Brown was sworn in to Schwartz’s old seat.

Interestingly enough, since Michael A. Brown is not running this year, the Board of Elections Ethics did not require Michael D. Brown to use his middle initial on the ballot. This will likely only further the confusion among some voters.

The Big Race

The Clarus poll. Finally, us pundits and bloggers have some numbers to work with. As we reported earlier this week, the numbers tell us just what we expected–it’s a tight race. The narrative now, of course, is that Gray has pulled into the lead and that Fenty must catch-up. That’s never a good story for an incumbent. Other storylines are evolving as well, with the Examiner’s Freeman Klopott declaring, “Mayor Adrian Fenty is the white candidate and D.C. Council Chairman Vince Gray is the black candidate.”  There are a hundred ways to break down this race, from black versus white to rich versus poor to old guard versus new. This is a very unique election, where a mostly successful incument is on the verge of defeat. Required reading for junkies this week is of course Alan Suderman’s Fenty profile in the City Paper, which delves into the “personality gap.” Some are turned off by Fenty’s personality, and therefore pushed to Gray, who seems to have little personality. It’s fascinating and difficult to predict. We have debate after debate, forum after forum, and still no clear leader. These round-ups have been saying the election is trending Gray, so it’s no surprise he has pulled ahead, but this could go either way.

So, where are we? Fenty is hitting back with some new television ads, probably his best to date. We’re also seeing more mailings to the areas where this election will be the closest. This is where Fenty’s campaign chest can completely overwhelm Gray. Fenty will have an advantage with the last minute push, both on the ground, through the mail, and on the airwaves. Fenty’s “results” message is compelling, and with a large number of voters undecided, a last minute barrage could tip the scales towards re-election.

This isn’t to say Gray isn’t in a position to win. He’s been building support at an amazing rate, but has got to keep the momentum going in these final weeks. Gray needs to build on what he has, though, and build more on how his approach to governing would both be more ‘friendly’ but also yield more results. For that more than 20% undecided still out there, Gray has to sell his policy ideas as well as his personality. Perhaps he should think about airing this City Paper parody ad.

Council Chair

Not a lot of change here, the Clarus poll shows Kwame Brown heading into the last few weeks with a decent lead. There’s still a large number of undecideds, though, 29%. How will these undecideds break? Well, right now the Clarus numbers show the most undecides are in Wards 2 and 3, averaging 35%. Contrast that to only 24% in Wards 6, 7 and 8. Watch this race to be determined in NW, where voters may not be as familiar with either candidate. This race is getting interesting, even though most everyone in the establishment continues to think Brown has it in the bag. This poll was conducted after the Washington Post endorsed Orange. Clarus notes that Kwame Brown holds a strong lead among African-Americans, while the two candidates are in a tie among whites. I’d expect we’ll see a lot of visibility up in Wards 2 and 3 in the next few weeks.

Ward One

Jeff Smith picked up another endorsement this week, this time the Washington Building Trades Council. This is a group of trade unions including bricklayers, electrical workers, iron workers, boilermakers, plumbers, plasterers and painters. Interesting to note that Smith has picked up the endorsement of both the Trades Council and the Chamber of Commerce, which ostensibly are both interested in furthering development and construction in Ward 1. I don’t have any figures in front of me but I find it unlikely many members of the Trades Council reside in Ward 1.

Jeff Smith and fellow challenger Bryan Weaver have managed to pick up a half-dozen or so endorsements amongst the the both of them, but incumbent Jim Graham is still far ahead both in endorsements (SEIU, AFSCME, UNITE HERE Local 25, Sierra Club, Allied Transit Union Local 689, Gertrude Stein Democratic Club, The Intowner Newspaper, Victory Fund and TENAC) and fundraising. Barring any significant events in the next few weeks, it’s looking difficult for either Weaver or Smith to unseat Jim Graham. Of course, all of that can change in a heartbeat. A minor programming note, after the wrap-up of the primary, I will be spending some time talking about the GOP candidates for Council seats, so stay tuned.

Ward Five

Kenyan McDuffie late with his campaign finance report, from a statement:

As you all know, the Campaign Finance Report was due last Tuesday, August 10, 2010—the only one not turned in was ours. Kenyan McDuffie went to file his finance report on Tuesday; however, he requested and was granted an extension due to the K5 campaign treasurer’s unexpected illness. Kenyan ForWard 5’s Future will file the report by close of business next Friday, Aug. 20, 2010. We understand that remaining consistent and transparent is necessary to not only gain your vote on September 14, but to maintain your trust in the local government.   Integrity and competent leadership stands as a base for the K5 Campaign, and we apologize that if this unforeseen circumstance has raised any red flags.  Your continued support is greatly appreciated.

As of this morning, McDuffie’s report was not available online.

The web is buzzing with the results of a new independent poll of the race for mayor. The poll, conducted independently by Clarus Research Group, has challenger Vincent Gray with a slim 3-point lead over incumbent Mayor Adrian Fenty. In a sampling of 501 registered Democrats, Gray comes away with 39%, Fenty with 36%, Leo Alexander with 2%, and a whopping 22% undecided. Among those considered likely voters, Gray opens up a larger lead, 41% to 36%. The margin of error for this poll was +/- 4.4%.

Clarus also polled on the Council Chair race, and the results are roughly what was expected. Kwame Brown leads Vincent Orange 39% to 29%, with 29% undecided.

There are no real surprises in the poll, but if you’re a DC politics junkie it is fascinating stuff. We learn that most people in the city aren’t familiar with District Attorney General Peter Nickles–and those who do know him like him, 27% favorable, 18% unfavorable. MPD Chief Lanier gets 80% favorable, and Rhee is more divisive, as expected, 50% favorable, 35% unfavorable.

What does it all mean? The race is close. Super close. We already knew that. The numbers on Rhee are split down the middle, again not a surprise. The Nickles numbers show what us bloggers and commentators often forget–most people don’t read the same things we read. I bet you’d see similar numbers if you polled about Ron Moten. We’re going to see more ads about Fenty’s “results” and we’ll see more hits by Gray on Fenty’s personality and ‘cronyism.’ I’d venture a guess though that with Nickles’ numbers where they are, most people either don’t care or don’t know about the alleged cronyism. In essence, this poll merely confirmed what we all thought, this is going to be an extremely close election.

Traffic is still impacted in the area with Connecticut Avenue closed northbound at Florida Avenue, and T Street closed between Connecticut and Florida.

Witnesses report hearing several loud explosions, which fire department officials say were exploding transformers. The Universal North and South office complexes have been evacuated, and are presently without power. The complex also houses the Washington Sports Club gym, the Buca di Beppo restaurant, and a Rite Aid.

Smoke was seen coming from sidewalk grates along T Street, across the street from the Washington Hilton. Witnesses also reported smoke coming from the parking garage.

Smoke is still visible in the area.

Good afternoon! It’s been a hell of a readjustment for me, I was in Stockholm all last week and I have been attempting to catch-up. We’re now only 39 days away from Primary Day, and we’ve got a lot of news to sift through. The biggest story, of course, is Vincent Gray’s upset victory at the Ward 4 straw poll. We’ve also got more news out of Ward 1, and an interesting twist in the at-Large contest. Here we go.

The Big Race

Let’s just get the straw poll out of the way. Vince Gray defeated Adrian Fenty on his home turf. He did not walk away with enough votes to earn the Ward 4 Democratic endorsement, but it was an amazing showing. There was a lot of ‘spirited’ debate prior to the vote, perhaps a preview of what’s to come. How much does this really matter, though? The common reaction has been that it’s bad news for Fenty, but again straw polls don’t show much except a campaign’s ability to rally their most dedicated supporters. Looking at it this way, this was a huge win for Gray’s organization–to get people to the straw poll on a Wednesday night when it’s hot and miserable. Gray rallied his volunteers for a massive canvassing effort prior to the straw poll–no small feat, and one to take note of. This is big news for Gray, and a sign that his canvassing operation and get out the vote efforts are something to be reckoned with. Does it matter? I wouldn’t say this indicates that Ward 4 will go Gray, but it does bode very well for Gray’s chances overall. ALSO, be sure to check out some of the video from the poll, crazy.

Gray unveils jobs plan. Mike DeBonis said it best, “Gray opens up ‘plan gap’” I don’t think this specific document is going to sway very many voters, but it does allow Gray to say he’s put together a plan. I highly recommend checking out this analysis of the jobs plan over at Housing Complex, a great rundown. Like Gray’s education plan, this has a lot of things that sound nice and would appeal to everyone, but are unlikely to ever see the light of day. Does it matter? Unemployment and jobs are always one of the deciding factors in an election. If Gray can sell this plan in a passionate way that isn’t soul-crushingly wonky, he could gain a significant advantage.

Gray goes negative, then pulls ad. The Gray campaign released a YouTube-only video featuring a clip of Fenty admitting he has failed in some aspects of his job. There was a bit of controversy over the ad, the production made it seem as if NBC4′s Tom Sherwood was narrating the piece. Upon request from NBC4, the Gray campaign took the ad down. The idea of the ad is to show that Fenty doesn’t always deliver results, but honestly showing the Mayor interacting in a very candid way with a voter is not the best way to demonize him. If anything, this showed Fenty might not be as disconnected as people think. Since it’s been pulled and it never hit the airwaves at all, this doesn’t matter much, though.

Where are we? Gray is quickly shedding his underdog credentials, as Freeman Klopott noted in the Examiner. Klopott wonders if this will cause some of his supports to lose enthusiasm, but it could also play out the other way and his support could snowball. It’s hard to say how this will go, though, because much of this analysis is based on things that mean little to the average voter. If Gray can successful use his on-the-ground operation to rally voters on election day, I think he has a better than even chance of winning.

Council Chair

Kwame Brown defeated Vincent Orange in the Ward 4 Straw poll, 524 to 385. Not as big of a margin as I would have expected. Could this be related to disenchantment over Kwame Brown due to revelations about his debt? I doubt it, instead I’m going to guess Orange made a big push to get supports to get out the vote in what was a highly visible political event.

Ward One

The Washington Post delved into the Ward 1 race this week. Paul Schwartzman looks at incumbent Jim Graham’s possible weaknesses and profiles his opponents. There’s not a whole lot new in this profile, but the fact that this is even a contest is the story.

At-Large

The Name Game. Story of the week in the at-Large race is the apparent confusion over Michael Brown. Shadow Senator Michael D. Brown is running for at-Large Council, not to be confused Michael A. Brown, the Ward 4 resident who is also an at-Large Councilmember. At Wednesday’s straw poll, Ward 4 residents cast 330 ballots for Michael D. Brown, who is facing incumbent Phil Mendleson and Clark Ray. Brown placed second, behind Mendelson’s 364, and ahead of Ray who received 199. Councilmember Brown says this is a case of “political identity theft” and that the DC Board of Elections and Ethics should somehow clarify the matter on September’s ballot. That’s unlikely to happen since incumbent Brown isn’t up for re-election this year. Some say this could spell doom for Clark Ray, at least in Ward 4. I’d agree this might be problematic in Ward 4, but could be good news in that 60% of Ward 4 voters did not vote for Mendelson.

Last week the feeling was game on. This week, 53 days out from the primary, there hasn’t been any notable shift in momentum in the Mayoral race. Kwame Brown’s personal debt is still making the rounds in the Council chair race, and there’s been some rumblings in the races in Ward 1 and Ward 5. Let’s get to it, shall we?

The Big Race

Fenty wins Ward 2 straw poll. Is this good news for Vince Gray? Fenty won the Ward 2 staw poll with 97 votes. Gray secured 63 votes, a strong showing in what would generally be expected to be solid Green territory. Does this show the momentum shifting towards Gray? I wouldn’t read that much into a straw poll. Instead, what I would read into this is that Gray’s ground game is improving and that he was able to get 63 people to the straw poll to vote for him. Some have questioned Gray’s ability to do this–to turn out the vote, especially in Fenty territory. I wouldn’t use this result to predict how Ward 2 will go on election day, but I’d squarely put it in the good news column for Gray.

Blue for Gray. This is a bit complicated, but Vince Gray has now officially won the endorsement of the District’s law enforcement union. Previously the Fraternal Order of Police lodge that represents MPD endorsed Gray, but now he has the support of the larger FOP body that represents many, many law enforcement agencies in the District. This means police unions ranging from Metro Transit Police to the National Institute of Health Police are in the Gray column. Does it matter? It’s hard to say, this could benefit the Gray campaign organizationally, as well as further allowing him to attack Fenty on public safety issues. Endorsements aren’t always very telling though, so while a PR win for Gray now, it’s unclear how it will pay off at the ballot box.

Anthony Williams endorses Fenty. Yet another endorsement rolls in, this time a bit unexpectedly. Former Mayor Anthony Williams endorsed Fenty at a plaque (read: poster) unveiling at DC USA in Columbia Heights. The former mayor also endorsed fellow bow-tie enthusiast Jim Graham for Ward 1 Council. Does it matter? Again, hard to say. Williams has enjoyed some popularity since his term ended in 2006, and many see Fenty as continuing on the path he set.

Does this look like a candidate who has had all that he can eat? There was another candidate forum this week, this time up on Fenty’s old turf in Takoma. The big candidates played nice, while the minor candidates got into the dirt a bit. The big takeaway was that Leo Alexander pledged to bring a family restaurant to DC–a Golden Corral. Ultimately I do agree with Alexander that many areas of the city could use more reasonably priced sit-down restaurants, but we should aim for locally owned and not a terrible chain. What’s next, a Stuckey’s?

Where are we? Still too close to call, Fenty with a bit of an advantage. No change on that.

Council Chair

Kwame’s debt story is still here. Loose Lips tackled the subject in the print edition of the City Paper this week–concluding that the story is most likely a non-issue come election time. Suderman’s analysis is well done, and I tend to agree with it. All of this is provided that there are no more skeletons in the Councilmember’s closet. At this point any more revelations could start to seriously hurt the candidate.

Where are we? Vincent Orange is pushing the debt story hard, and has lost a fundraiser in the process. So far, the message hasn’t been able to stick, and while people do have lingering questions about Brown, it hasn’t risen to a level that could destroy his candidacy. And make no mistake, at this point an Orange victory would only happen is if Kwame Brown is destroyed. If the election were held today, Kwame Brown would win by a landslide.

Ward One

Hatch Act violations? Until there is Hatch Act reform, this will still be an issue each campaign cycle. A blogger raised questions about a page on Jim Graham’s campaign web site, asserting that it may be a violation of the Hatch Act, the federal law that regulates political activity of government employees.

A quick primer! You can read more about the Hatch Act at the DOJ’s Office of the Special Counsel web site. The Hatch Act applies to DC government employees, and for the time being ANC commissioners are considered government employees as well. Enforcement of the Hatch Act is up to the OSC, which has historically been less-than-consistent.

Does any of this matter? Well, it’s tricky. Several members of Jim Graham’s staff serve as ANC commissioners in Ward 1. Bryan Weaver is also an ANC commissioner, and under Hatch he would technically need to resign his commission. I asked Graham spokesman Chuck Thies what he thought about Hatch and these issues, and he dismissed the concerns as “esoteric nitpicking.” At this point, I’d probably tend to agree–with the ambiguous interpretations of the Hatch Act and the fact that there has been little evidence of malfeasance, it seems like a non-story. I will, of course, keep my eyes and ears open.

In about a week I will begin a series of profiles of the Ward 1 candidates, so look for that soon in Campaign Notebook. I will be out of the District traveling for the next week, so Tom will take over for the next edition.

Ward Five

Ward 5 dispatch by Tom Bridge

Councilmember Harry Thomas (Ward 5) postponed his town hall meeting this week, potentially because of the news that he owes almost $16,000 to the government for his student loans.  They’re claiming that he defaulted on the last $5,000 of his student loans, and also that he failed to pay five speeding tickets (seriously, does no one pay these? I almost feel like I should get some tickets and not pay them, just so some day I can run for council with legitimate credibility).

In addition, candidate Kathy Henderson was a bit feisty on the Edgewood listserv this week when Matt Ashburn from Capital City Diner thanked the councilman for his initiative in extending the H Street shuttle service to go all the way to Bladensburg Road where the diner is located.  Henderson was quick to point out that the Starburst Plaza project predated Councilmember Thomas, but Jaime Fearer of District Curmudgeon set Ms. Henderson straight on Thomas’ involvement in the recent shuttle project.  Also interesting was the response from the Councilmember to the Edgewood and Brookland lists, which came with the signature “Sent from my Harry2010 iPad.”

Lately I’ve been afflicted with strong bouts of nostalgia. Thinking back to my time in college, wishing I had done things differently, the sort of typical mid-twenties angst. For those of us who may still be unsure of what we want to do with our lives, Avenue Q is a musical that will hit home. It will also strongly remind you of a bygone era—the early 2000s. It is also the only musical with fully nude puppets having sex on stage. It has been called Sesame Street for grown-ups, which is a accurate description. Avenue Q opened at the Lansburgh Theatre last week, and is unique and entertaining look at angst-filled life in the big city.

The musical follows the life of the Princeton (Brent Michael DiRoma), a fresh-faced college graduate. The only place he can afford to live is an apartment on far-flung Avenue Q, in an outer borough of New York City. Princeton soon meets his neighbors, Kate Monster (Jacqueline Grabois), an assistant schoolteacher who dreams of opening her own school; stand-up comic Brian (Tim Kornblum) and his Asian-American immigrant wife Christmas Eve (Juliana Lee, understudy for Lisa Helmi Johanson); Rod, a closeted Republican stockbroker (DiRoma) and his roommate Nicky (Zach Trimmer, understudy for Michael Liscio, Jr.); Trekkie Monster (Trimmer), the porn-addicted upstairs neighbor, and apartment superintendent Gary Coleman (Charles Baskerville).

AVENUE Q National Tour 2009, National Tour Cast © John Daughtry 2009

The actors do an excellent job with presenting both human characters and the puppet characters. The set-up is challenging—the puppet character and the actor providing the voice are both on stage However, the performance is seamless and the audience quickly melds the puppet and actor into one solid character. Within moments of the opening scene, it feels natural and is easy to follow.

The plot is somewhat predictable—Princeton and neighbor Kate Monster fall in love, Princeton experiences a quarter-life crisis, breaks off the relationship and hooks up with Lucy the Slut (Grabois), a former Girls Gone Wild star. We also follow Rod’s struggle to get out of the closet, which leads both to conflict with roommate Nicky, and the hilarious number “My Girlfriend Who Lives in Canada.”

The biggest criticism of the story is that it strays from its focus on life as a confused freshly-minted “adult.” The show is at its best when the jokes and dialogue are more understated, such as with the awkwardness of dating—including whether a mix-tape is a sign of affection, and the hilarious “Princeton you are such a gentleman”, “You too, Kate Monster” exchange. As the second act unfolds, however, it becomes clear the ending will be more deus ex machina and less accepting the depressing reality of grown-up life. The story is wrapped-up in a nice neat ending with plot holes big enough to ride a snuffaluffagus through.

Avenue Q is now seven years old, and it’s beginning to show its age. The songs are still very entertaining; however some of the topics that could have once been considered edgy now seem cliché. The song “The Internet is for Porn” immediately comes to mind, as well as the references to Girls Gone Wild. While some fresher references have been added, such as Glen Beck, they seem awkward and out-of-place. Never fear, though, there are timeless classics such as the opening number “What Can I Do With a B.A. in English,” as well the heartbreaking love song “There’s a Fine, Fine Line.”

The use of puppets certainly evokes Sesame Street—a way to present important life lessons in a digestible and often lighthearted way. Unfortunately, the life lessons as we get older are much more depressing than the “everyone is special” manta of childhood. The audience expects a more-or-less feel good story from the cute puppets—when the lessons are harsh, they are all the more powerful. The audience feels at ease letting their guard down to a puppet-led ensemble, allowing for a frank discussion of race, romance, purpose and sexuality. This is why Avenue Q has been so successful, and why it’s much more than just funny and raunchy puppet show.

All told, Avenue Q is a well-acted and well-produced show. Audiences of all ages can take something away from the performance. Younger people, especially those just now graduating from college, may find some of the jokes and songs to be outdated, perhaps even “old.” For those of us in their mid-twenties or later, you’ll leave the theatre feeling like Princeton at the end of the show—a bit older and wishing you could pass the lessons on to your younger-self.

Avenue Q is playing the Lansburgh Theatre, 450 7th St NW, now through August 15. Tickets can be purchased online.

District Attorney General Peter Nickles is cracking down on delinquent landlords, recently forcing fixes at at Southeast apartment complex. Freeman Klopott reports in the Washington Examiner today that Nickles stepped in to get fixes moving for the 1,500 residents of the Marbury Plaza apartment complex. Nickles got involved after hearing many complaints about lack of air conditioning and other dangers, all while the management company had a $5 million loan for renovations.

“If they screw around on this, they can expect trouble from me,” Nickles told The Washington Examiner, referring to the landlord. “I’m not a bashful guy, and I will come down hard.”

The attorney general is often described by critics as being a ‘crony’ of Mayor Fenty, serving the needs of the mayor’s political career rather than District residents. Could this move be a way to bolster his own image, as well as Fenty’s? Probably, there’s less than two months until the primary and this is some good P.R. for Nickles. To be sure, Nickles says he may get involved in more cases similar to this.

It’s been a big week in DC politics, best summed up in two words: Game On. There was plenty of sparring in the mayoral race, culminating in a drama-filled radio debate yesterday. Council chair candidate Kwame Brown continues to face questions about his finances, and Jeff Smith reaches out to bloggers in Ward 1. It’s 60 days until the primary and things are getting juicy.

The Big Race

• The Ron Moten factor. Ron Moten created Peaceaholics and is a staunch supporter of Mayor Adrian Fenty. He’s been organizing the go go get-out-the-vote rallies for the mayor, and has a tendency to be a political ‘liability.’ If you recall, Moten was coordinating the whole failed fire truck donation to the Dominican Republic. At a go go rally this past weekend, Moten got into some hot water for comparing Fenty to Jesus. Mike DeBonis reported at the WaPo that Moten said: “If you understand what they did to Jesus, on Monday, everybody was praising him. Wednesday, he went to court, and all the people who he helped, nobody came to court for him. … On Friday, they crucified him. … The reason why we’re here today is to get the facts out to you so history don’t repeat itself again.”. Moten made news this week again for urging Fenty to veto a bill that would make it illegal to pay people to vote or to register to vote. Moten was apparently concerned that this would make his go go GOTV activities illegal. On Thursday, Moten camped out near WPFW-FM’s studio to confront Vincent Gray regarding the charge of being one of Fenty’s cronies. Gray and Fenty were both present for a candidate debate on Pacifica radio. OK, this is a lot of campaign drama, what’s the skinny on this? Moten’s Jesus comment got some play on CNN, but I suspect that will be forgotten by next week. Fenty isn’t going to veto the vote-buying bill, and Moten’s go go rallies will continue (they aren’t illegal). Moten is a colorful character to be sure, but at this point his impact is negligible. I was a little confused as to why DC Wire made a story out of his comments about Fenty and the veto… but then again the story wasn’t even that Moten thought Fenty should veto the bill–the story was that Moten contacted the Washington Post to say so. Not sure why the Post bit on that one. Does Moten Matter? He sure matters to people like myself who are following this race, he provides a lot of entertainment. The average voter has no idea any of this happened, though, and it’s not exactly anything earth-shattering, so no.
• DC Public Schools standardized test results show improvement for some, setbacks for others. As we reported earlier this week, elementary-level scores were down while middle school scores were up. The overall trend is still up. Fenty can spin this as continued progress with a bit of statistical noise. Gray could potentially spin this that improvement is needed and Rhee isn’t all she’s cracked up to be. Like pretty much everything else so far, this breaks about evenly for both candidates and likely isn’t a huge deal. Fenty can still tout education, but Gray can point out a very small recent slip. Does it matter? Negligible.
• Fenty skips another candidate forum. Things got a bit heated between some of the other candidates, and once again Fenty was not present. People are inevitably asking questions about the mayor’s attitude and priorities. The most important part of this story, though, is that Faith did indeed bring her trumpet to the forum. For a bit more info on some of the other candidates, NBC4 has a round-up of some of the characters involved.
• Where are we? A lot of observers are calling this race a dead heat. I’d agree, it’s definitely falling into too close to call territory. As the new Loose Lips Alan Suderman points out, Fenty’s message machine is pretty much non-existent at this point. How this situation has come to be at Camp Fenty is unclear, he has the money, and he should be able to pull out the organization. Gray still isn’t able to cash in on this, though, and still hasn’t quite come into his own as a passionate, excited candidate who appears ready-to-lead.

DC Council, Chair

• Kwame Brown’s debt still a topic of discussion. Tom Sherwood at NBC4 continues to wonder about how Kwame Brown ended up in such a financial mess. I wonder the same thing too, and the big question is if there’s more financial disclosures to come. Vincent Orange is already capitalizing on the Brown revelation, wondering if Brown could be taken seriously by business leaders. I’m not sure that’s the best question to ask, I’m left questioning whether someone who can be so irresponsible in their personal life can truly be a completely different person when they are in public office. No one is perfect, of course, but as Sherwood points out, there were many ways that the court action could have been avoided. What impact will this have? Right now Brown still has a bit of an edge, but if there’s more out there or if Orange hammers this enough things could change. I’m going to bet that the DC Republican Party wishes they had fielded a candidate for this office. There is also the possibility of someone (but who?) mounting a write-in campaign come November. We’ll see, this is trending to be a very, very interesting race.

DC Council, at-large

• Clark Ray meets with business leaders. DCist’s Martin Austermuhle tweeted on Thursday that Ray should have thought twice about posing for that photo with A. Scott Bolden. Ray’s audience also included former Councilmember Harold Brazil, who after leaving office was involved in a fight at a Georgetown tattoo parlor. Personally I don’t think Ray’s meeting with Bolden will hurt him, he’s been running a stellar campaign so far and certainly has a shot. If anything, he’s certainly one of the hardest working candidates in this cycle.
• Phil Mendleson grabs Gertrude Stein endorsement. The incumbent edged out Ray to nab the organization’s endorsement with 62% of the vote.  I suggest clicking through that link to read more about the dynamics at play within the DC GLBT community regarding this race.

DC Council, Ward 1

• Jeff Smith’s campaign reaches out to bloggers. This Ward 1 resident and blogger will be meeting with challenger Jeff Smith this weekend. The Smith campaign has been getting more involved online, and has been making some strides in visibility around the Ward. Still, it’s proving difficult for either Smith or Bryan Weaver to gain any significant hold.

DC Council, Ward 5

• More financial woes for Harry Thomas, Jr. These stories just never end, it seems. The City Paper reported that the Federal Government alleges Thomas owes some $16,000 from defaulted student loans going back to the 1980s. Thomas claims this is a misunderstanding. The details are a little difficult to follow, as they usually are when involving things that happened 30 years ago and are coming to light in the middle of a campaign. Thomas also has been dealing with some old traffic tickets from Maryland. Unclear what impact this will have on the race, as this now seems to be par for the course for Councilmembers.

Got tips? Send them along via email or find me on Twitter.

Yelp reviews on the 20th Street location were mixed, reviewers noting that prices were often higher that at other Safeway stores. The “Soviet” Safeway at 17th and Corcoran, NW remains open.

The National Park Service announced today that construction work will begin July 12 on the western retaining wall of Meridian Hill Park. The work will impact both vehicular and pedestrian traffic along 16th Street for roughly three months. From the NPS press release:

Beginning the week of Monday, July 12th, the National Park Service’s (NPS) Rock Creek Park and its contractor, The Christman Company of Alexandria, VA, will begin performing necessary stabilization work on the historic 35-foot- high retaining wall at Meridian Hill Park that borders northbound 16th Street, N.W. This historic wall is located on the west side of Meridian Hill Park near the intersection of 16th Street N.W. and Crescent Place Drive, N.W. Work on this project is expected to be completed in approximately three months.

To ensure pedestrian and vehicular safety, the work will require closure of a portion of the northbound lanes of 16th Street, N.W. beginning the week of July 12, 2010. The work area will start near the bus stop on the northbound side of 16th Street, N.W., and continue approximately 600-feet northward. The resulting traffic shift will provide two lanes in both directions at all times. Parking along southbound 16th Street, N.W. will be eliminated adjacent to the work area.

Also note:

Pedestrian traffic on the east side of 16th Street, N.W. will be restricted during the working hours of Monday through Friday, 6:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. This sidewalk will be open every afternoon after working hours and will remain open all weekend. During working hours, pedestrian traffic will then be redirected to the west side of 16th Street, N.W. at W and Euclid Streets, N.W.

DC Water is also doing some pipe replacement work between Euclid and Fuller Streets, NW. If you use 16th Street as part of your daily commute, beware, it’s likely traffic will be heavy between Florida Avenue and Columbia Road. The S1, S2, S4 and S9 bus routes may also experience delays due to this work.

There are 67 days until the primary.

This week’s edition will be a bit shorter given the short week, but there’s been some interesting news. It mostly involves traffic tickets. If you missed it, the DC Board of Elections and Ethics released the full candidate list for the September primary on Wednesday. Provided there are no objections to the petitions, the ballot will be set. Of course this is DC, and there have been objections in the past. In 2002, incumbent Mayor Anthony Williams was forced to run as a write-in candidate due to fraudulent signatures on his petition. Despite not appearing on the ballot, Williams still won the Democratic nomination and was re-elected in November.

The Big Race

• Gray calls on Fenty to fire Attorney General Peter Nickles. On Thursday the Gray campaign released a statement asking Fenty to relieve AG Peter Nickles of his official duties. The release cites various examples of Nickles acting on behalf of Fenty rather than the District as a whole.  Does it matter? This was a no-brainer for the Gray campaign. Nickles is one of the most divisive people in the Fenty administration and everyone knew it would become an issue. Fenty will either have to ignore this completely, or defend Nickles–not an easy prospect. Even those who support Fenty’s get-it-done attitude have a hard time stomaching Nickles. Gray did vote to confirm Nickles, so this isn’t exactly an “I told you so” situation. Unsurprisingly, Nickles’s reaction was that Gray “must have had heat stroke or something.”
• Vincent Gray’s unpaid traffic ticket. Nearly eight years ago Gray received a traffic ticket in Maryland for driving on the shoulder of the inner loop en route to Fedex Field. At the time Gray did not hold public office and was the executive director of Covenant House Washington. The Washington Post reports that the ticket went unpaid–and unaddressed–until Gray announced his candidacy for mayor. Gray apparently never paid the ticket, and never appeared in court, and was issued a failure to appear suspension. This suspension never made its way to the DC DMV, so Gray’s license is still valid. The campaign says Gray is determined to take care of this and that payment will be sent this week. Does it matter? Well, let me say that I don’t understand how this happens. I can understand neglecting a parking ticket, that happens. However, I don’t understand neglecting a traffic ticket. Driving on the shoulder is probably a pretty costly ticket as well, though I don’t know how many points. My own puzzlement at this aside, I don’t think it’s a big deal. I’m honestly surprised though that for a man with such attention to detail he ends up with a failure to appear in court charge.
• Fenty gets pulled over in Chinatown, issued a warning for failure to signal. OK, really, these aren’t stories.
• Fenty’s ad blitz begins–with slogan “No excuses, just results.” It’s an interesting strategy, Fenty must be reading Hardball and taking to heart the old adage of “hang a lantern on your problem.” Fenty’s git r done attitude is why he still has support, so he’s playing it up. He’s aiming to turn out his base, it seems–we’ll see if he makes any effort to try and win back the skeptics.
• Parks and Rec contracts battle revived by settlement. Peter Nickles authorized a settlement with Banneker Ventures for $550,000. Last year this whole mess unfolded when it turned out District contracts were going to a company owned by a fraternity brother of Mayor Fenty. These contracts bypassed the Council, which caused the Council-Fenty rift to grow. The Council ended all contracts of this type, and Banneker claimed they were owed $2.3 million. The Council asked District CFO Nat Gandhi not to pay the settlement. This is a bit complicated, the Examiner has a rundown on the consequences of the deal. Does it matter? More ammunition for Gray against Fenty. Just wait for the cronyism campaign lit, it’ll happen.
• Only ten weeks left, where are we? People are liking the idea of someone who isn’t Fenty, but it’s difficult to warm up to Gray. He knows facts and figures and has a plan, but the questions start to come up about how all these things can get done. Fenty has gotten things done, perhaps at the cost of his political future. He has made difficult choices and made many people unhappy. Gray’s message needs to start expressing that he is willing to make things happen, and occasionally make people unhappy. Right now it’s all optimistic forward-looking plans for DC that while wonderful seem impractical and set for failure. If Gray turns this around and projects an image of a leader who can get things done better than Fenty, this race might be all but over. Still lean Fenty if the election were held today.

Council Chair

• Kwame Brown has terrible credit. Tom Sherwood at NBC4 broke the news that Councilmember and candidate for Chair Kwame Brown is up to his eyeballs in debt. According to court documents, Brown owes over $50,000 to various credit card companies. The fact that these overdue amounts have resulted in court action is not a good sign for Brown’s finances. Does it matter? Well, someone could make an argument that someone is more likely to commit workplaces theft if they are so far in debt. While I don’t agree with credit checks for employment purposes, I could see this impacting a race for the second highest office in the District. Having to explain to the press that yes, you are learning to live on a budget, does not bode well for someone who will be overseeing budgeting for a city facing financial crisis. Will Vincent Orange attack Brown over this? We’ll see. If anything this does make his flashy campaign stretch SUV seem a bit ridiculous.

Ward One

• Internal poll shows large lead for Jim Graham. Not a big surprise here. A poll commissioned by the Graham campaign shows the incumbent with 68% of likely voters. Jeff Smith and Bryan Weaver combined only received 15%, with 17% undecided. It’s going to take a lot for either of the challengers to make this a real race. Perhaps there is hope for the Republican challenger come November.

Ward Five

• Harry Thomas, Jr. also in trouble over traffic tickets. It seems the theme of the week is that members of the DC Council are irresponsible and never pay their debts. The Ward 5 incumbent has five unpaid tickets from Maryland, according Rend Smith over at the City Paper.

That’s it for this week. Enjoy the weekend and remember to email or tweet your tips about the campaigns.

Today marks two years since 22-year-old cyclist Alice Swanson was struck and killed by a trash truck at the corner of Connecticut Avenue and R Street in Dupont Circle. Shortly after Swanson’s death, a memorial “ghost bike” appeared at the corner. The memorial remained in place, often adorned with flowers or notes, until last August. At the behest of the Dupont Circle Merchants and Professionals Association the memorial was removed by the city.

This morning, Swanson’s friends and family placed mementos at the site of the accident, and chalked messages on the sidewalk. This afternoon, the ghost bike memorial was replaced. Twitter user @victorzapanta sent along a photo of the new memorial.

The previous bike was removed by the Department of Public Works following a request by the Mayor’s office. The original request came from Ed Grandis of DC MAP, who characterized the well-kept memorial as an eye sore. Most street memorials in the District are left in place for 30 days before removal by DPW. These are generally memorials of photographs, flowers and/or stuffed animals. The District Department of Transportation has a policy of removing abandoned bicycles, but only after leaving a notice on the bicycle first.

In any event, a ghost bike is a solemn reminder to motorists, cyclists and pedestrians that all must share the road.  Last year the District debated constructing a memorial tree box at the location, but eventually declined to pursue that course of action. It will be interesting to see how the city reacts to the replacement of the ghost bike.

The filing deadline for the District’s September primary has passed, and the Board of Elections and Ethics has released the final candidate list. You can download the entire list as a PDF from the DC BOEE web site. For the Mayoral race, both Vincent Gray and incumbent Adrian Fenty submitted their petitions back in June. Leo Alexander and Sulaimon Brown also had their petitions in before the deadline, rounding out the first and second tiers. Assorted others, including White House party crasher Carlos Allen turned in enough signatures to appear on the September ballot. In total, there will be seven Democratic candidates for Mayor: Adrian Fenty, Vincent Gray, Leo Alexander, Sulaimon Brown, Carlos Allen, Michael Green, and Ernest Johnson.

There aren’t any big surprises here. For Chairman of the Council, four Democratic candidates turned in their petitions before the deadline. Kwame Brown, Vincent Orange, Dorothy Douglas, and Calvin Gurley. For the At-Large Council seat there are also four candidates including incumbent Phil Mendelson, Clark Ray, Will Ross and another Michael Brown. Not to be confused with Michael A. Brown, a current At-Large member of the Council. No, this is Michael D. Brown, the Democratic Shadow Senator for the District.

Ward 1 candidates include incumbent Jim Graham, Bryan Weaver and Jeff Smith. In Ward 3, Mary Cheh is unopposed. The Ward 5 race has five candidates, incumbent Harry Thomas, Jr., Kathy Henderson, Delano Hunter, Kenyan McDuffie, Tracey Turner. Sadly for Ward 5, George “Action” Jackson did not file his petition before the deadline. In Ward 6 we have incumbent Tommy Wells, Kelvin Robinson and Randy Brown.

DC Delegate Rep. Eleanor Holmes Norton will face one challenger, Douglass Sloan. For the shadow Representative slot, incumbent Mike Panetta will face Nate Bennett-Fleming.

The Republican side of the primary is about as sad as expected. There were no petitions filed for Mayor, Council Chair or At-Large Councilmember. Marc Morgan will run unopposed for Ward 1 Councilmember, Dave Hedgepeth for Ward 3, Timothy Day for Ward 5, and Jim DeMartino for Ward 6. For DC Delegate to the House, there’s Marjorie Reilly Smith and for shadow Representative Nelson Rimensnyder.

As expected, the primary will be the de-facto election with the Democratic nominee likely sailing to victory. There’s always the possibility of a write-in campaign, perhaps lead by Don Peebles or some such, but most likely this it. Races to watch are Mayor, Council Chair and Ward 5 Councilmember. The Ward 1 and 6 races have the potential to get interesting, but we’ll see.

On Monday, DC Council Chair and candidate for mayor Vincent Gray sat down with DC bloggers at Ben’s Chili Bowl. For nearly ninety minutes, Gray answered questions posed by bloggers from DCist, We Love DC, Greater Greater Washington, Borderstan and the District Curmudgeon. The event was part of the Gray campaign’s effort to tap into new media, and it provided a chance to talk about topics including education, crime, poverty and transportation.

This was my first chance to meet with Gray, who is challenging the incumbent Mayor Adrian Fenty for the Democratic nomination for mayor. The meeting was interesting, and shed some light into Gray’s attitude towards DC government, as well as his campaign style.

Gray is an experienced politician and also a bit of a policy wonk. The first impression you get is that he knows what is going on, and that he doesn’t always need to fall back on talking points. It is obvious that Gray is running a campaign aimed directly at people who have felt left behind by Fenty. Gray stresses that he is a uniter, and that he wants to be the mayor of “all of the people, not just some of the people.” He aims to bridge the divide between rich and poor, Northwest and Southeast. He feels too many people have been left behind, and that too many people don’t feel invested in the city.

To achieve these goals of unity, Gray is pushing his birth-to-24 education plan. He wants better education for all ages, both to help adults get better jobs and college degrees and to keep young families in the District. His plan, which was released last week, is lofty. He again stressed that he won’t answer if he’d keep Michelle Rhee on board, even if she has made it clear she would not stay. He wants reform that is institutionalized, and he wants to get the public more involved. On a similar note, he would also not commit either way on the future of MPD Chief Cathy Lanier. Overall, Gray has been pleased with her performance, but was very careful to be non-committal. Given his recent endorsement by the police union, this was unsurprising.

On the matter of the controversial streetcar funding maneuver, Gray was very candid. He admits it was a mistake, both in the initial cut as well as how it was handled. He maintains that he never intended to cut off all of the funding, but rather direct efforts at better planning. There was a “misunderstanding,” he says, and that “it should not have happened.” He says he is dedicated to getting streetcars running as mayor. His candor was surprising, and he did offer a sincere and personal apology.

Photo by Dave Stroup, We Love DC

During the  meeting, Gray was reluctant to take personal swipes at Fenty. He would note areas where Fenty’s policies had failed, but it was often his campaign manager Adam Rubinson who would chime in with a more direct attack. Gray’s style is moderate and low-key. He knows how government works, and he has some very idealistic plans. His campaign is building a solid alternative to Fenty, but the political calculus in the District is complex. Gray has the support of many who dislike Fenty, but he also needs to attract those on the fence. Gray acknowledges the intensity of the campaign, but did not have a solid answer when asked how he can attract people who are happy with a lot of Fenty’s accomplishments.

Gray’s campaign can be summed up mostly as providing more opportunities. This includes education, housing, health care and employment. He wants more government transparency and pledges to hold weekly press conferences. I don’t think you’d find anyone in the District who would disagree with his platform at this point.

Any skilled candidate will provide thoughtful and compelling answers at a session such as this. The real questions are always in the nitty-gritty. There’s no doubt that Vincent Gray loves the District and wants to see things change for the better. This campaign will be won or lost on Gray’s ability to convince District voters that he can make these things happen. The wisest thing Gray said on Monday was that this campaign will not come down to who has the most money. Fenty has a large war chest, and a record of results. He also has vulnerabilities. This will be an extremely close race, and it will be interesting to see whether the idealistic campaign plan of Vincent Gray can weather the long, hot DC summer.