The results of the DC Election just got a bit more interesting. This morning, DCBOEE released the totals of write-in candidates (PDF) for the Republican and Statehood Green party ballots, and the winner of the Republican primary for Mayor was Adrian Fenty. He has until 4:45pm today to issue the board a letter of intent to accept the nomination if he wishes to have his name on the ballot this November. Could he choose to run again in November?
So, let’s put aside the fact that yesterday he raised Vincent Gray’s hand in a Unity Rally for the Democrats, and that he point blank said he wouldn’t run as a Republican. Could he succeed with a Republican campaign this fall? Let’s look at a few numbers:
- There are approximately 30,000 Republican voters registered in the District of Columbia.
- There are approximately 73,000 voters registered with no party in the District of Columbia.
- Each of these voters were unable to cast ballots for Fenty that would “matter” in the September primary.
- Fenty lost the primary by approximately 9,000 votes in an election that had approximately 33% turnout.
- 33% turnout of 103,000 voters is is just under 34,000 votes. You’d need to win 2/3rds of those votes to overcome the gap from the Primary. Take into account that the 73,000 No Party voters are a complete wildcard and it looks a lot harder.
So, those are the numbers here. What’s the reality? His campaign has to be just about broke. He had pledged to leave it all on the court for the September Primary, and it’s looking like that’s exactly what happened, so he’d need to start raising cash, and a lot of it, for a 7-week run as a Republican. Now, if he could work to gain the loyalty of the District’s Republicans, that might well happen, given that school reform is as near and dear to their hearts as lower taxation and regulation, so there’s the potential he might be able to pull off enough of a money run to make it conceivable.
Would it be the right thing to do? That’s where the biggest question exists. Part of me says, you take your lumps in the primary, and you work to better the city in other non-elected-office ways for the next couple years while considering a comeback after a first term of Gray. Part of me says, if you really believe in what you were doing, you’ll take any chance and run any risk in order to make a difference for the city you care about.
Should Fenty run as a Republican? There’s a case for either side. Tell us what you think in this poll:
Create your free online surveys with SurveyMonkey, the world’s leading questionnaire tool.
Update, 1:00pm: The DCBOEE has ruled that even if he wanted to, Adrian Fenty was not eligible to be the Republican candidate for Mayor on this November’s ballot. Fenty would have to have been a member of the Republican Party on September 14th, and unless a late registration shows up, it’s all academic at this point. We do have some results from our totally unscientific survey though:
Should Adrian Fenty accept the Republican nomination?